Oscar Nominee Predictions

Here are my Oscar nominee predictions for the 79th Annual Academy Awards that will take place on Sunday, February 25, 2007. The nominees will be announced on Tuesday, January 23, 2007.

Best Picture
1) The Departed
2) Babel
3) The Queen
4) Dreamgirls
5) Letters from Iwo Jima

Darkhorse candidates: Little Miss Sunshine, Flags of our Fathers

The top four choices as nominees for this category are almost for certain. My choice of Letters from Iwo Jima is sort of a risky choice, but I think Academy voters tend to like Eastwood, and they will probably go for this film. However, Little Miss Sunshine could just as easily secure the fifth spot.

Best Director
1) Martin Scorsese (The Departed)
2) Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Babel)
3) Stephen Frears (The Queen)
4) Bill Condon (Dreamgirls)
5) Clint Eastwood (Letters from Iwo Jima)

Darkhorse Candidates: Paul Greengrass (United 93), Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris (Little Miss Sunshine), Alfonso Cuaron (Children of Men)

A very unlikely occurence may happen for the second year in a row. The Best Picture nominees may follow suit with the Best Director nominees. If there is one person who really does deserve a nomination, it is most definitely Alfonso Cuaron, as his film was one of the best of the year, but it never really got any help from critics. Both Clint Eastwood and Bill Condon are risky nominees, but I think they will ultimately beat out the other Darkhorse potentials.


Best Actor
1) Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland)
2) Peter O'Toole (Venus)
3) Leonardo DiCaprio (Blood Diamond)
4) Will Smith (The Pursuit of Happyness)
5) Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson)

Darkhorse Candidates: Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Departed)

I think this category is pretty much set with the given nominees. Unlike the Golden Globes, I think it is unlikely that DiCaprio will score two nominations. It seems more likely that he would get a nomination for Blood Diamond. However, if the Academy decides to go wild for The Departed (and that very well could happen), he may just get nominated for that film instead. It also seems unlikely that Cohen would get nominated for Borat, but considering his success at the Golden Globes, he may just pull off a nomination.


Best Actress
1) Helen Mirren (The Queen)
2) Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada)
3) Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal)
4) Penelope Cruz (Volver)
5) Kate Winslet (Little Children)

Darkhorse Candidates: Beyonce Knowles (Dreamgirls), Toni Collette (Little Miss Sunshine), Maggie Gyllenhal (Sherrybaby).

It really doesn't matter who gets nominated in this category, because this is a runaway for Helen Mirren. However, the outsider who could most likely get nominated would probably be Toni Collette, if and only if the Academy goes crazy for Little Miss Sunshine.

Best Supporting Actor
1) Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls)
2) Jackie Earl Haley (Little Children)
3) Jack Nicholson (The Departed)
4) Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond)
5) Mark Wahlberg (The Departed)

Darkhorse Candidates: Michael Sheen (The Queen), Ben Affleck (Hollywoodland), Alan Arkin
(Little Miss Sunshine), Adam Beach (Flags of our Fathers), and Brad Pitt (Babel).

This is a really rough year to be in this category. Every single one of these actors deserves to take home Oscar gold. I'm going out on a limb for Wahlberg, but I think he may just get nominated due to his great performance in The Departed, coupled with the overall success of the film. It would be nice to see Michael Sheen sneak in somewhere, as his performance in The Queen was riveting.

Best Supporting Actress
1) Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls)
2) Rinko Kikuchi (Babel)
3) Adrianna Barraza (Babel)
4) Abigail Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine)
5) Cate Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal)

Darkhorse Candidates: Emily Blunt (The Devil Wears Prada), Catherine O'Hara (For Your Consideration)

This category also seems pretty well set with the top five listed here. Emily Blunt's performance in Devil was good but probably not good enough to get her a nomination.


Final Thoughts
There are a few variables that could take place with each of these categories. First, any of these films could be THE film that voters go gaga for. Second, I think that voters will probably make that film The Departed since it did well at the box office and the cast is so amazingly great. The riskiest choice by far is to give Letters from Iwo Jima a top nod. It could happen, and I think it might given Eastwood's success at the Oscars.